RIPEC’s analysis of November revenue and caseload estimates, charter school outcomes, and warning signs from the Office of the Auditor General highlight this month’s agenda
RIPEC on Public Policy
- RIPEC released an analysis of the November 2025 Revenue and Caseload Estimating Conferences. The Conferences set the available general revenues and expected caseload expenditures for Medicaid and other public assistance programs, which are used to shape the governor’s budget proposal in January. RIPEC reported that the projected steady growth of revenues and slowed Medicaid spending indicate an additional general revenue surplus of about $38 million for fiscal year (FY) 2026. However, this surplus does little to offset the state’s looming deficit for FY 2027—last estimated at approximately $300 million.
- WPRI 12, “Study: RI budget outlook improves as Medicaid enrollment shrinks“
- WPRI 12, “Nesi’s Notes”
- RIPEC’s Director of Policy and Research Justine Oliva told The74—a nonprofit news outlet covering America’s education system—that Rhode Island’s “largest charters have outcomes that outperform [their] sending districts, as does the charter sector overall,” a key finding of RIPEC’s comprehensive charter school report. The story also highlighted that, in a nationwide study, Rhode Island’s charter schools showed the strongest academic gains compared with traditional public schools.
Inside Insights
- Rhode Island’s Office of the Auditor General released its annual report highlighting fiscal trends in the state’s cities and towns. The report—covering fiscal years 2020 through 2024—found that the number of municipalities failing to issue audited financial statements within the statutory six-month deadline increased. In consequence, more municipalities were crafting their budgets without the benefit of the previous fiscal year’s audit.
- The Rhode Island Department of Education issued accountability Report Cards for 2024-2025, showing continued post-pandemic recovery—the share of schools rated three-stars or higher rose from 57% to 59% year-over-year. Before the pandemic, 63% of schools rated as three-stars are higher, however.
- In a series highlighting the trends likely to dominate state legislative sessions in 2026, the National Conference of State Legislatures anticipated that Medicaid changes included in H.R. 1 will have a profound impact on state budgets. RIPEC’s analysis of the November Caseload Estimating Conference details how H.R. 1 is expected to lead to a decline in Medicaid enrollments and slower spending growth.
- In its inaugural State of the States 2025 report, the West Health-Gallup Center for Healthcare in America ranked Rhode Island as the 4th best state in the nation for overall healthcare experience. The study positions the state as a top-tier performer, ranking it 6th best nationwide for both favorable cost experience and quality of care.
What to Look for in December
- RIPEC will release the Q3 Key Performance Indicators (KPI) Quarterly Briefing following publication by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics of reports which have been delayed by the federal government shutdown.